Lemmings
Once I saw a mother rabbit eating her newborn young. I was 15 and rather traumatized, but I understood the reasoning behind it. She was imprisoned, with no hope of escape, in a hutch with dozens of other bunnies, and there just wasn't room for more.
I sure hope I'm wrong, but I'm wondering if we've reached the capacity of this hutch for humans. Stories like this one, where athletic British youth are jumping off cliffs into the sea like so many lemmings ( http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/health_medical/article1152044.ece ), or this one, where a mother mysteriously killed all her children and herself ( http://www.financialexpress-bd.com/index3.asp?cnd=6/6/2006§ion_id=3&newsid=26858&spcl= ) make me wonder if we're already at that point.
What do humans do when they feel hopelessly overcrowded? Well, China and India and South Korea, very much on the overcrowded side, both seem to start reducing the number of girl babies, by about 16% relative to boys. Obviously this will reduce reproductive capacity, but only by 16%. But it does lead within 15-20 years to an abundance of single young men with nothing to do, which I suppose leads to war. Which reduces overcrowding. Think Darfur.
But it's a global problem, and few wars are effectively limited to one region nowadays. So maybe we're all doing the right thing, from Nature's point of view. Eventually those wars will spread and keep the population low everywhere. And even in relatively affluent areas like Britain, we're starting to find ways to march off cliffs.
See also Hawking: Leave Earth or Die.
I sure hope I'm wrong, but I'm wondering if we've reached the capacity of this hutch for humans. Stories like this one, where athletic British youth are jumping off cliffs into the sea like so many lemmings ( http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/health_medical/article1152044.ece ), or this one, where a mother mysteriously killed all her children and herself ( http://www.financialexpress-bd.com/index3.asp?cnd=6/6/2006§ion_id=3&newsid=26858&spcl= ) make me wonder if we're already at that point.
What do humans do when they feel hopelessly overcrowded? Well, China and India and South Korea, very much on the overcrowded side, both seem to start reducing the number of girl babies, by about 16% relative to boys. Obviously this will reduce reproductive capacity, but only by 16%. But it does lead within 15-20 years to an abundance of single young men with nothing to do, which I suppose leads to war. Which reduces overcrowding. Think Darfur.
But it's a global problem, and few wars are effectively limited to one region nowadays. So maybe we're all doing the right thing, from Nature's point of view. Eventually those wars will spread and keep the population low everywhere. And even in relatively affluent areas like Britain, we're starting to find ways to march off cliffs.
See also Hawking: Leave Earth or Die.
3 Comments on "Lemmings":
Well, there are lots of reasons other than overcrowding to explain why people engage in dangerous but generally non-fatal activities (jumping off British cliffs) or murderous/suicidal behaviour (the mother).
Overcrowing is limited to certain areas of this planet, and yes, it can get very bad.
On the whole, however, we have lots of space. That many people are still overcrowded points to socioeconomic factors, combined with a reluctance to move somewhere else.
Fortunately it doesn't take wars to reduce population. Birthrates have dropped dramatically in most of the world. Because there are still lots of young people around, the world population will keep increasing for a few more decades, but then it will reverse and start declining. The UN estimates this will happen around 2050.
I agree with Rohan on this one. In fact, the lemmings example is appropriate: It is a myth that lemmings commit mass suicide - a total fabrication concocted by Disney in 1958. Tombstoning is no more intentional suicide than the cyclical lemming migrations.
I would put the practice down to a fringe of society that doesn't know how to be happy with simple pleasures, and can't afford the chemical kind. It may also be attributable to another phenomenon that I suspect to be true (although easily dismissed as elitist): even with a decining birth rate, the decline is less among the stupid people.
Let's face it, as politcally incorrect as it might be, you can't say that we have smarter people on this planet without also saying that we have less smart people. If we surmise that a population explosion is a bad thing for the planet, then it would make sense that the smart people would work this out early in the game. Consequently, for that (and likely other) reasons, I believe that the smarter people are typically choosing to bring fewer people into the world. It doesn't take much to reach the obvious conclusions: I fear that the mean intelligence of the planet is dropping.
Or perhaps I should say I used to believe that. Carolyn's post on a model for the success of cooperative modeled bahaviours is very encouraging. Perhaps nature has a way of preserving the smart genes too. (They do have an arguable advantage for survival.)
There is also the wonderful concept of the Darwin awards. (Those people who contribute to the human gene pool by removing themselves - or their potential for reproduction- from it.)
As for that poor mother and her family - well I can't believe she did it for the better good of her community, but she probably thought it was what was best for herself and her kids. And there are days when I can see her line of reasoning...
Perhaps I put out a separate post on a similar topic - catastrophic planetary resource plundering.
In his talk at TED this year, Hans Rosling visualizes world population growth, national GDP, birth rates, and the health of nations. The talk is outstanding and the visualizations provide a way to quickly and easily understand why the UN is forecasting an end to global population growth. Check out his and other TED talks online: http://www.ted.com/tedtalks/
Hans Rosling is a public health expert, director of Sweden's world-renowned Karolinska Institute, and founder of Gapminder, a non-profit that brings vital global data to life. (Recorded February, 2006 in Monterey, CA.)
Online: http://www.ted.com/tedtalks/tedtalksplayer.cfm?key=hans_rosling
Download video: http://ted.streamguys.net/ted_rosling_h_2006.zip
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